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Join us online for the ADIA Lab Climate Data Science Best Paper Award Finalists Seminar Series! Following a competitive selection process, we have chosen five outstanding finalists to present their papers in virtual seminars over the coming weeks.

Seminar 4:  A Method to Assess and Explain Changes in Sub-Daily Precipitation Return Levels From Convection-Permitting Simulations

Authors: Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, Giorgia Fosser, Antonio Canale, Bardia Roghani, Marco Marani, Francesco Marra

Short duration heavy rainfall may lead to various natural hazards like floods and landslides. Expected change in extreme precipitation due to global warming is a major concern. However, we still cannot quantify these changes because typical climate models cannot reproduce extreme precipitation accurately. The few models that can are very computationally expensive so that we have too few simulations for properly quantifying changes in extremes using traditional statistical methods. Here, we show how to use a new statistical method to quantify extremes from short model simulations. This method is more accurate than currently used methods and may help provide additional insights on the reasons underlying the observed changes. This method could represent a new tool in the hands of the climate research community. Examining the simulations of one model over North-Eastern Italy, we report an increase in extreme precipitation in mountainous areas and a non-significant decrease in the low elevation areas.

When you sign-up, you will receive links to watch all 5 seminars online. Feel free to attend all sessions or just the ones that interest you most — we look forward to seeing you there!